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Earlier today, Tesla released production and delivery numbers for 2022. According to the company press release, the company produced 1,369,611 cars and delivered 1,313,851 cars, an increase of 47% and 40% YOY respectively.
According to news reports, market participants have taken this as a miss (since the company announced an ambitious plan to increase both by 50%) and the stock price is down 12% @ a year low of 107.75 ( a fall of 73% from its Nov 2021 high of 414).
On the positive side, it is important to note that no other car manufacturer has set an ambitious goal like the one Elon Musk set for Tesla and come this close to achieving it.
Further, the company's financial performance is delivered with a single model (Model 3 contributes 94% of production and deliveries in 2022) while its competitors broadly sell between 14 to 25 models.
Actual GAAP EPS in the first 3 qts of 2022 is @ $2.55 and expectations are for TSLA to earn $1 per share in Q4 2022. The current PE ratio for the stock (ttm, excl items) is at 37.95 vs a 5 year avg for the stock @ 230.77).
PE perspective: The stock has not been priced better than this in the last five years. Sentiment: The stock has not seen worse than this in the same period.
From a long term strategic perspective, a price band of 92 to 108 looks attractive for an allocation since the company expects to produce 20 million cars by 2030. According to data from Refinitiv, the consensus rating on the stock is a Buy with an average price target of 240 (based on 41 analyst ratings).
The current price looks attractive for tactical strategy for Q1 2022 as well since the negative sentiment on the stock looks excessive. An allocation could be made either by purchasing the stock or call options (preferably a call spread to reduce limit potential impact on the downside / upside).
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